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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising together. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still